Rabu, 14 Oktober 2009

Unemployment to remain high for years

According to a survey of professional forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Fed, the unemployment rate is expected to remain abnormally high for at least three more years.

When looking at the graph above, keep in mind that from the mid-1990s until 2007, unemployment generally ranged from 4-6%, with NAIRU (essentially the natural rate of unemployment) being about 5%. Furthermore, since 1947 there have only been three times when the unemployment rate exceeded 8%: the mid-1970s, the early 1980s, and now.

What effect do you think sustained high unemployment will have on foreclosures and home prices? What effect will sustained high unemployment have on mortgage rates? What effect will those mortgage rates have on home prices? Would we have had such high unemployment if there had never been a housing bubble? Add your thoughts in to the comments.

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