5 threats to housing this year

Credit Suisse predicts a strong housing market this year, but warns of five threats to it:

1. Tax credit expires.
2. Mortgage rates rise.
3. Foreclosures continue.
4. FHA tightens lending.
5. Jobs. There’s risk from a slow rebound in employment.

Personally, I expect four of the five to be issues this year. The exception is #4. The FHA is losing money hand over fist, but is unlikely to tighten lending because as a government institution it has little incentive to act rationally.

Also, the threat of item #2 is inversely related to the threat of item #5.