Lancia Delta Integrale & Prisma 4WD

It applies to:Lancia Delta Integrale with HF Integrale 8vLancia Delta Integrale with HF Integrale 16vLancia Delta with HF4WDLancia Prisma with 2.0 DOHC 8vLancia Prisma was a midsize car built by Lancia in the 1980s. It was basically a sedan version of the Lancia Delta, and like its smaller hatchback "brother", shared its chassis and engines with the Fiat Ritmo and Regata. Unlike the Delta, though, the Prisma never had a career in motorsports, the...

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Case Shiller Price Index - October 2009

From Case Shiller's Press Release:“The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s....As of October 2009, average home prices across the United States are at...

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Get to know your blogger

I'm on vacation this week. David says he'll post to the blog while I'm gone. In the meantime, get to know your blogger through Wikipedia user boxes. Click on the image to see the full-sized versi...

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Updated housing bubble graph

For those who are interested, I have finally gotten around to updating my housing bubble graphs. The national graph now has a new feature: pre-bubble trend lines.Click on the graph to view the full-sized versi...

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David Lereah Launches New Real Estate Blog

David Lereah launches a new blog called Real Estate Economy Watch.Seeking Alpha has this to say:Maybe not… but it appears that Lereah has launched a new venture… let’s call it a blog… with both an ironic title and a decidedly more realistic un-spun outlook.“Real Estate Economy Watch” is effectively a blog that hosts daily commentary on the housing market, tracks market data, and even specifically follows the course the “housing crisis”.The title is ironic because it is reminiscent of “David Lereah Watch” a popular blog that relentlessly pounded...

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Merry Christmas

Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good nig...

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Bernanke criticized for ignoring housing bubble

Kevin Drum criticizes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for being complacent about the growing housing bubble. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman follows su...

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NAHB: Senate health care bill targets home builders

The National Association of Home Builders isn't happy with the Senate's version of the health care reform bill:Home builders say they are unfairly targeted in the sweeping Senate health-care legislation that could mean coverage for millions of Americans."In their rush to pass massive health care reform before Christmas, Senate Democrats included a last-minute provision overtly targeting the construction industry, including home builders," the National Association of Home Builders said in an email alert to its 200,000 members Monday. "In order to...

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Home prices falling again?

This comes from Calculated Risk:Earlier today I mentioned that the Fed started using First American CoreLogic's LoanPerformance House Price Index last year for the Flow of Funds report.And also that LoanPerformance announced today that house prices fell 0.7% in October.Since most people have been following Case-Shiller, here is a graph of the LoanPerformance index (with and without foreclosures) and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index.The LoanPerformance...

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Links

Morgan Stanley is immoral. (Just in case you didn't already know.)Finally, a stimulus bill I can support. But why does Congress feel the need to tell states how to spend the money? Why not just give money to the states and let those closer to the ground level make the spending decisions. Does Washington, D.C. really know what's good for Wyoming better than the Wyoming state legislature do...

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Bearish housing predictions

Predictions from Trulia CEO Pete Flint:Next year "government interventions will start to disappear, shadow inventory will hit the market and mortgage rates will start to rise" to around 6 percent from under 5 percent, he said. "We're in a false state of stability."Shadow inventory includes houses that banks now hold but have yet to put up for sale.Double-digit unemployment will push more owners into foreclosure, further destabilizing the housing market and pressing prices down another 5 to 10 percent, said Flint.Predictions from RealtyTrac:Foreclosures...

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Question for readers

Do you agree with Time's choice of Ben Bernanke as Person of the Year?To paraphrase an old Paul Krugman saying, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of BusinessWeek Time magazine."By the way, here's a little Bernanke nugget from The Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog:In an extended interview with Time Magazine, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says he refinanced his own mortgage a couple of months ago at 5%, and switched...

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Citigroup: No foreclosures during the holidays

Citigroup is suspending foreclosures for the next 30 days:Citigroup Inc. will suspend foreclosures and evictions for 30 days in a temporary break for about 4,000 borrowers during the holiday season.The New York-based bank said Thursday the suspension will run from Friday through Jan. 17. It applies only to borrowers whose loans are owned by Citi. Borrowers who make payments to Citi but whose loans are owned by other investors are out of luck."We want our borrowers to have a much less stressful time, to spend their time with their families during...

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Ginnie Mae is an enabler of risky lending

From The Washington Post:The trouble signs surrounding Lend America had been building for years. A top executive was convicted of mortgage fraud but still helped run the company. Home loans made by its headquarters were defaulting at an extremely high rate. Federal prosecutors alleged in a civil suit that the company falsified loan documents and committed fraud.Yet despite these red flags, a little-known federal agency continued giving its blessing to Lend America, allowing it to do business in the name of the U.S. government. The Government National...

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CNBC: The Bubble Decade

CNBC has a new documentary about this past decade's economy called The Bubble Decade. Apparently it first aired last night, will air tonight and tomorrow night, and probably numerous times after that. Here's the synopsis:In The Bubble Decade, a one-hour CNBC Original documentary, Correspondent David Faber reports on one of the most dramatic periods in the history of America’s financial markets. As the first decade of the 21st century draws to a close,...

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The ethics of stiffing the bank

Megan McArdle gives her though...

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Prof. Karl Case retires

Wellesley College economics professor Karl Case, of Case-Shiller fame, retired from teaching yesterday:The idea for the most influential measure of the nation’s housing market began in Karl E. Case’s living room about 25 years ago. ...He grew obsessed with housing values and wanted to come up with a better way to measure them. Within a few years, Case and his colleague Robert J. Shiller of Yale University created what is now called the S&P/Case-Shiller...

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Foreclosure filings up 18% YoY; down 8% MoM

From CNN Money:Foreclosure filings fell by 8% in November, making it the fourth consecutive month of improvement in the housing market.There were 306,627 filings last month, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. That decline follows a 3% drop in October, 4% in September and 1% in August. ...However, while there are signs of improvement, the industry has yet to turn around: Foreclosure filings were still a lofty 18% above November 2008's leve...

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FHA: Helping the affluent buy housing

The Federal Housing Administration exists in part to make housing more affordable for low-income families. However, with the advent of the financial crisis the FHA has experienced mission creep. The first of its new missions is to help prop up housing prices, thus preventing housing from becoming affordable. The second of its new missions is to help high-income Americans buy homes. Since the FHA is currently on financially shaky ground, these new missions could end up coming at taxpayer expense.The Washington Post explains the latter of these new...

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Housing: Canada vs. the United States

Canadian vs. U.S. housing prices:Canadian vs. U.S. delinquency rates:Commentary from the source:While it is difficult to disentangle the reasons why Canada avoided the subprime boom, some factors can be identified that may have contributed to the differences in the Canadian and U.S. subprime markets.Perhaps the simplest story is that Canada was “lucky” to be a late adopter of U.S. innovations rather than an innovator in mortgage finance. While the...

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November 2009 job losses: BLS vs. ADP

Via Mark Thoma, FT Alphaville questions the accuracy of the BLS payroll numbers released on Friday:Just how amazing were the US payroll numbers released on Friday?So amazing they’re verging on the (perish the thought) unbelievable, according to some analysts.The consensus forecast among analysts for the November job loss had been -130,000, with even the relatively optimistic and sometime-clairvoyant economists at Goldman Sachs forecasting -100,000....

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Thoughts on "too big to fail"

Economist and blogger Rebecca Wilder has some thoughts on "too big to fail" ban...

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More bubbles to come

Robin Wells, a former Princeton University economics professor and current wife of Paul Krugman, says we will continue having financial bubbles:The world is trapped in a global savings glut. It is both the source of our economic woes and an obstacle to the task of pulling ourselves out of the ditch. Worse yet, the glut's continued existence will feed a succession of asset bubbles until we confront it, head on, and find ways to soak up the excess.Yes, we can blame the City and Wall Street for turning the global savings glut into fissile material....

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Bargain book about the financial crisis

Looking for an inexpensive Christmas gift for yourself or others? Just want something to read while traveling? The Two Trillion Dollar Meltdown is currently available from Amazon.com for only $4.55.I haven't read the book, so I can't attest to its quality. I do, however, get a kick out of this 1-star reader review of the first edition from April 29, 2008:"Trillion Dollar Melt Down" is about the 2007 sub-prime credit crisis. The huge problem, though,...

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The unemployment rate declines!

The economy keeps getting better (or less bad). The unemployment rate actually fell in November, down to 10.0% compared to 10.2% a month earlier:The year-over-year percent change in initial jobless claims has fallen below zero, which means employed workers are safer than they were a year ago:November's month-over-month change in nonfarm payrolls was just about zero, the best it's been since December 2007:Compare the above graph with a graph of ADP's...

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2010 housing predictions

CNBC real estate reporter Diana Olick makes four predictions for the coming year:The residential housing market will dip again in mid-2010 before settling into a recovery in the back half of the year.Foreclosure inventory will be a lot higher than some predict.No more historic lows on the 30-year fixed.Commercial real estate will continue to suffer the ills of low vacancy rates, low rents and high default rat...

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ADP: November 2009 job losses

According to the ADP Employment Report, the month over month rate of job losses continued to decline in November. This graph shows the number of job losses in thousands:Here are ADP's comments on the numbers:Nonfarm private employment decreased 169,000 from October to November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. ...November was the eighth consecutive month during which the decline in employment was...

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Home sales contracts up in October

The number of home sales contracts surged in October, as home buyers tried to take advantage of the first time homeowner tax credit:In October the National Association of Realtors recorded an unprecedented ninth consecutive month of increases in the number of signed contracts.Although these are not closed sales, and some deals can fall through, signed contracts are a good indicator of where the housing market is headed.Between September and October NAR's Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.7% to 114.1 from 110 in October. But the index is 31.8% higher...

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Law professor: Walk away

A law professor encourages people to walk away from their homes:Go ahead. Break the chains. Stop paying on your mortgage if you owe more than the house is worth. And most important: Don't feel guilty about it. Don't think you're doing something morally wrong.That's the incendiary core message of a new academic paper by Brent T. White, a University of Arizona law school professor, titled "Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Housing Crisis."White argues that far more of the estimated 15 million American homeowners...

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WTF?

"You buy this house and you will be ric...

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Flashback 2005: Margaret Hwang Smith and Gary Smith said "there is no bubble"

Margaret Hwang Smith and Gary Smith, economics professors at Pomona College in Claremont, California, argued in a paper titled "Bubble, Bubble, Where’s the Housing Bubble?" that "there is no bubble in the prices of single-family homes in 2005."In a bubble, market prices are far above fundamental values calculated with reasonable assumptions about the future cash flow. By this definition, there is no bubble in the prices of single-family homes in...

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Quote of the day

This quote from Dean Baker—one of the first economists to notice the housing bubble (about a year-and-a-half after I noticed it, but I digress)—actually comes from two weeks ago. I just found it and I like it, even if it is an exaggeration:The Fed Is Responsible for 10.2 Percent Unemployment in the Same Way That Al Queda Was Responsible for September 11thAn elaboration:There may well be an anti-elitist strain to the anger against the Fed and Bernanke, but serious people do not dispute their responsibility for the economic crisis. There was an enormous...

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Federal housing subsidies are insane

Federal housing subsidies are insa...

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GDP revised downward

From The Wall Street Journal:What last month had appeared to be third-quarter growth of 3.5% in gross domestic product turns out to have been a more modest 2.8%. Consumer spending was pared back to 2.9% from 3.4%. The cash-for-clunkers subsidy produced fewer new-vehicle purchases than first estimated. In short, we aren't getting much bang for our $787 billion stimulus buc...

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Cato on the housing crisis

The Cato Institute's view of the housing bubble and resulting financial crisis:The housing bubble and its aftermath arose from market distortions created by the Federal Reserve, the government backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development and its Federal Housing Administration. Americans suffered through a severe recession in 2008 and 2009, a downturn unfortunately precipitated by perverse government policies.Regarding bad decisions made by the private sector, the traditional remedy for severely mistaken...

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Almost one-quarter of mortgage borrowers are underwater

From The Wall Street Journal:The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23%, threatening prospects for a sustained housing recovery.Nearly 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes in the third quarter, according to First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company based in Santa Ana, Calif.These so-called underwater mortgages pose a roadblock to a housing recovery because the properties are more likely to fall into bank foreclosure and get dumped...

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Existing home sales up 23.5% year-over-year

The month-over-month change was 10.1%:Existing home sales surged in October to the highest level in more than 2-1/2 years, according to a real estate industry report issued Monday.The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales rose 10.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 million units, up from the downwardly revised rate of 5.54 million in September. ...The gain was likely due to an influx of buyers looking to take advantage of an $8,000 tax credit that the Obama administration made available for qualified...

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Housing starts fell significantly in October

Month-over-month housing starts fell in October:In a blow to the optimism that had surrounded the U.S. housing sector in recent months, housing starts fell a sharp 10.6% in October, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.New construction on housing units dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000, the lowest level since April. The 10.6% drop was the biggest percentage decline for starts since January.Both single-family homes and multifamily units declined last month.Prior to the October decline, housing starts have been flat for...

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Five myths about homeownership

Joseph Gyourko, chairman of the real estate department and the director of the Zell/Lurie Real Estate Center at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, lists five myths about home ownership:Housing is a great long-term investment.The homebuyer tax credit makes buying a house more affordable.Homeownership is good for society because owners make better citizens.It's safe to buy a house with a very low down payment.Owning a home is cheaper than renting one because you save on rent.For his explanation of why they are myths, click here. I don't...

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When did the housing bubble begin?

The Wall Street Journal asks when the housing bubble began:Why should we care when it all began? It’s politics. If the housing bubble began during the Clinton administration, it can be blamed on the Democrats and their efforts to expand homeownership to people who, in some cases, may not have been quite ready for it. If it began under George W. Bush, then it can be imputed to the Republicans’ love of deregulation.Of course, as we all know, the causes...

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Why eminent domain should be used sparingly

This is karma:The private homes that New London, Conn., took away from Suzette Kelo and her neighbors have been torn down. Their former site is a wasteland of fields of weeds, a monument to the power of eminent domain.But now Pfizer, the drug company whose neighboring research facility had been the original cause of the homes' seizure, has just announced that it is closing up shop in New London.To lure those jobs to New London a decade ago, the local government promised to demolish the older residential neighborhood adjacent to the land Pfizer...

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Jeffrey Sachs: How to stimulate the economy

Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs criticizes the Democratic and Republican ideas for stimulating the economy:Following a Keynesian approach, the Obama administration has focused on restoring consumer spending. They have gone about this with a combination of near-zero interest rates, massive Fed financing of mortgages and various consumption incentives, such as rebates for new homebuyers and cash for clunkers.During the previous bubble,...

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Robert Shiller conflicted by housing data

Fox Business journalist Alexis Glick describes her recent interview with Robert Shiller:Today it was clearly visible that the historical data he looks at to predict the future is not working. The current appreciation in housing and other economic indicators are not what the models would suggest. Time and time again he said “this is a time of great uncertainty.” He’s clearly puzzled by the rapid appreciation in home prices while disturbed by the “bail out economy” and the national deficit. He admitted, “Things seem to be working right now but we’re...

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Fannie Mae needs another bailout; Freddie Mac will need one

Fannie Mae is in more financial trouble:Fannie Mae, the federally controlled mortgage finance giant, said Thursday it lost $19 billion in the third quarter and had submitted a request to the Treasury Department for $15 billion in more aid to stay afloat.District-based Fannie Mae and its McLean sibling, Freddie Mac, were seized in early September 2008 by the federal government. Since then, Fannie Mae has lost $111 billion. The $15 billion in aid it has requested comes on top of $45 billion it already received. Freddie Mac has received $51 billion...

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Congress and president renewed home buyer tax credit on Friday

As I'm sure you've heard, Congress and President Obama renewed the home buyer tax credit on Friday. It's a massive waste of money that will simply add to the national debt. Unlike infrastructure spending, which will enhance long-term growth while helping to bail the country out of its current financial mess, spending $40,000+ each just to transfer existing houses from one person to another will harm long-term economic growth. It will harm economic...

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October 2009 job numbers

The unemployment rate has reached the highest level since the early 1980s, rising to 10.2% in October 2009. The last time the U3 (official) unemployment rate was this high was April, 1983. (As a kid back then, it really didn't seem that bad—although I'm doing well now, too.)Initial weekly unemployment insurance claims continue to improve—or more precisely, they are getting worse at a slower rate. This graph shows year-over-year numbers. Ideally,...

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BMW 5 Series 1989-1995 Service Manual

Whether you're a professional or a do-it-yourself BMW owner, this manual will help you understand, care for and repair your E34 5 Series. Models and engines covered:- 525i (M20 with DME 1.3) 1989-1990- 525i (M50 with DME 3.1) 1991-1992- 525i (M50TU/VANOS with DME 3.3.1) 1993-1995- 530i (M60 with DME 3.3) 1994-1995- 535i (M30 with DME 1.3) 1989-1993- 540i (M60 with DME 3.3) 1994-1995Transmissions covered: - Manual (remove, install, external service)Getrag...

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The definitive guide to modifying Citroen Saxo

Would you like to modify your Citroen Saxo, but would prefer to carry out the jobs yourself? All you need to know on Saxo modifying is contained within this guide.Downl...

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Fiat Tipo and Tempra Repair Manual and Owner Reference Information

This manual applies to: Fiat Tipo and Tempra:-Petrol engines: 1.4 (1372cc) and 1.6 (1580cc)-Diesel engines: 1.7D (1697 non-turbo), 1.9D, 1.9TD and 1.9TDs (1929 turbo and non-turbo)-Hatchbacks, Saloons and Estates 1988-1996-Manual and Selecta (automatic) transmission modelsThis manual contains highly detailed, easy-to-follow service instructions, ideal for beginners and experts alike. It is illustrated with hundreds of clear photographs and...

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Home buyer tax credit = more global warming

According to Harvard economist Edward Glaeser, Congress and the White House are intent on harming the planet:ENVIRONMENTALISTS who are worried about global warming should pay attention to the congressional debate about extending the home buyers tax credit. Federal tax policies toward housing have long encouraged Americans to emit more carbon. President Obama could do the country, and the planet, a service by either refusing to sign the extension of the $8,000 credit or by insisting that it be accompanied by offsetting reductions in the home mortgage...

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Homebuyer tax credit nearing renewal

Stupid stuff like this is why, after a decade of voting straight Democratic in state and federal elections, I decided to stay home yesterday and let the winds of change blow. I'm disgusted with both political parti...

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How the crisis could change economic theory

Here's an interesting look at how our little housing bubble may change macroeconomic theory.The crisis exposed the inadequacy of economists' traditional tool kit, forcing them to revisit questions many had long thought answered, such as how to tame disruptive boom-and-bust cycles. ..."We could be looking at a paradigm shift," says Frederic Mishkin, a former Federal Reserve governor now at Columbia University.That shift could change the way central bankers do their job, possibly leading them to wade more deeply into markets. They could, for example,...

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D.C. area foreclosures double year-over-year

From last Wednesday's Washington Post:The number of Washington area homeowners in foreclosure has more that doubled in the past year, according to a report to be released Wednesday that shows the problem remains most acute in a few counties and could get worse as more borrowers fall behind on their payments.About 2.7 percent of local borrowers are in the foreclosure process, meaning that the bank has started the legal process to take back the property, according to the report by the Urban Institute, a nonprofit policy research group based in Washington....

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Cash for Clunkers cost $24,000 per car

Edmunds.com has analyzed the car sales numbers during the Cash for Clunkers program and estimated that the marginal cost was $24,000 of our tax dollars for each new car sold:A total of 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the Cash for Clunkers program last summer, but only 125,000 of those were vehicles that would not have been sold anyway, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the automotive Web site Edmunds.com. ...The Cash for Clunkers program gave car buyers rebates of up to $4,500 if they traded in less fuel-efficient vehicles for...

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What does a median-priced house look like?

The median price of a house in the United States is roughly $175,000. Here's what a house at that price looks like in different parts of the count...

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Shoddy construction

Discussing a recent New York Times article about shoddy condo construction during the boom, the Wall Street Journal's "Developments" blog writes:The story about shoddy construction during the boom isn’t just a NYC tale. As M.P. McQueen reported in the Journal this summer, the furious pace of home building from the late 1990s through the first half of this decade contributed to a surge in defects. It caused shortages of both skilled construction workers and quality materials. Many municipalities also fell behind inspecting and certifying new homes.The...

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