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Kamis, 31 Desember 2009

Lancia Delta Integrale & Prisma 4WD

It applies to:Lancia Delta Integrale with HF Integrale 8vLancia Delta Integrale with HF Integrale 16vLancia Delta with HF4WDLancia Prisma with 2.0 DOHC 8vLancia Prisma was a midsize car built by Lancia in the 1980s. It was basically a sedan version of the Lancia Delta, and like its smaller hatchback "brother", shared its chassis and engines with the Fiat Ritmo and Regata. Unlike the Delta, though, the Prisma never had a career in motorsports, the...

Rabu, 30 Desember 2009

Case Shiller Price Index - October 2009

From Case Shiller's Press Release:“The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s....As of October 2009, average home prices across the United States are at...

Senin, 28 Desember 2009

Get to know your blogger

I'm on vacation this week. David says he'll post to the blog while I'm gone. In the meantime, get to know your blogger through Wikipedia user boxes. Click on the image to see the full-sized versi...

Sabtu, 26 Desember 2009

Updated housing bubble graph

For those who are interested, I have finally gotten around to updating my housing bubble graphs. The national graph now has a new feature: pre-bubble trend lines.Click on the graph to view the full-sized versi...

Jumat, 25 Desember 2009

David Lereah Launches New Real Estate Blog

David Lereah launches a new blog called Real Estate Economy Watch.Seeking Alpha has this to say:Maybe not… but it appears that Lereah has launched a new venture… let’s call it a blog… with both an ironic title and a decidedly more realistic un-spun outlook.“Real Estate Economy Watch” is effectively a blog that hosts daily commentary on the housing market, tracks market data, and even specifically follows the course the “housing crisis”.The title is ironic because it is reminiscent of “David Lereah Watch” a popular blog that relentlessly pounded...

Merry Christmas

Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good nig...

Rabu, 23 Desember 2009

Bernanke criticized for ignoring housing bubble

Kevin Drum criticizes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for being complacent about the growing housing bubble. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman follows su...

NAHB: Senate health care bill targets home builders

The National Association of Home Builders isn't happy with the Senate's version of the health care reform bill:Home builders say they are unfairly targeted in the sweeping Senate health-care legislation that could mean coverage for millions of Americans."In their rush to pass massive health care reform before Christmas, Senate Democrats included a last-minute provision overtly targeting the construction industry, including home builders," the National Association of Home Builders said in an email alert to its 200,000 members Monday. "In order to...

Selasa, 22 Desember 2009

Home prices falling again?

This comes from Calculated Risk:Earlier today I mentioned that the Fed started using First American CoreLogic's LoanPerformance House Price Index last year for the Flow of Funds report.And also that LoanPerformance announced today that house prices fell 0.7% in October.Since most people have been following Case-Shiller, here is a graph of the LoanPerformance index (with and without foreclosures) and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index.The LoanPerformance...

Sabtu, 19 Desember 2009

Links

Morgan Stanley is immoral. (Just in case you didn't already know.)Finally, a stimulus bill I can support. But why does Congress feel the need to tell states how to spend the money? Why not just give money to the states and let those closer to the ground level make the spending decisions. Does Washington, D.C. really know what's good for Wyoming better than the Wyoming state legislature do...

Jumat, 18 Desember 2009

Bearish housing predictions

Predictions from Trulia CEO Pete Flint:Next year "government interventions will start to disappear, shadow inventory will hit the market and mortgage rates will start to rise" to around 6 percent from under 5 percent, he said. "We're in a false state of stability."Shadow inventory includes houses that banks now hold but have yet to put up for sale.Double-digit unemployment will push more owners into foreclosure, further destabilizing the housing market and pressing prices down another 5 to 10 percent, said Flint.Predictions from RealtyTrac:Foreclosures...

Kamis, 17 Desember 2009

Question for readers

Do you agree with Time's choice of Ben Bernanke as Person of the Year?To paraphrase an old Paul Krugman saying, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of BusinessWeek Time magazine."By the way, here's a little Bernanke nugget from The Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog:In an extended interview with Time Magazine, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says he refinanced his own mortgage a couple of months ago at 5%, and switched...

Citigroup: No foreclosures during the holidays

Citigroup is suspending foreclosures for the next 30 days:Citigroup Inc. will suspend foreclosures and evictions for 30 days in a temporary break for about 4,000 borrowers during the holiday season.The New York-based bank said Thursday the suspension will run from Friday through Jan. 17. It applies only to borrowers whose loans are owned by Citi. Borrowers who make payments to Citi but whose loans are owned by other investors are out of luck."We want our borrowers to have a much less stressful time, to spend their time with their families during...

Senin, 14 Desember 2009

Ginnie Mae is an enabler of risky lending

From The Washington Post:The trouble signs surrounding Lend America had been building for years. A top executive was convicted of mortgage fraud but still helped run the company. Home loans made by its headquarters were defaulting at an extremely high rate. Federal prosecutors alleged in a civil suit that the company falsified loan documents and committed fraud.Yet despite these red flags, a little-known federal agency continued giving its blessing to Lend America, allowing it to do business in the name of the U.S. government. The Government National...

Minggu, 13 Desember 2009

CNBC: The Bubble Decade

CNBC has a new documentary about this past decade's economy called The Bubble Decade. Apparently it first aired last night, will air tonight and tomorrow night, and probably numerous times after that. Here's the synopsis:In The Bubble Decade, a one-hour CNBC Original documentary, Correspondent David Faber reports on one of the most dramatic periods in the history of America’s financial markets. As the first decade of the 21st century draws to a close,...

The ethics of stiffing the bank

Megan McArdle gives her though...

Sabtu, 12 Desember 2009

Prof. Karl Case retires

Wellesley College economics professor Karl Case, of Case-Shiller fame, retired from teaching yesterday:The idea for the most influential measure of the nation’s housing market began in Karl E. Case’s living room about 25 years ago. ...He grew obsessed with housing values and wanted to come up with a better way to measure them. Within a few years, Case and his colleague Robert J. Shiller of Yale University created what is now called the S&P/Case-Shiller...

Kamis, 10 Desember 2009

Foreclosure filings up 18% YoY; down 8% MoM

From CNN Money:Foreclosure filings fell by 8% in November, making it the fourth consecutive month of improvement in the housing market.There were 306,627 filings last month, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. That decline follows a 3% drop in October, 4% in September and 1% in August. ...However, while there are signs of improvement, the industry has yet to turn around: Foreclosure filings were still a lofty 18% above November 2008's leve...

Rabu, 09 Desember 2009

FHA: Helping the affluent buy housing

The Federal Housing Administration exists in part to make housing more affordable for low-income families. However, with the advent of the financial crisis the FHA has experienced mission creep. The first of its new missions is to help prop up housing prices, thus preventing housing from becoming affordable. The second of its new missions is to help high-income Americans buy homes. Since the FHA is currently on financially shaky ground, these new missions could end up coming at taxpayer expense.The Washington Post explains the latter of these new...

Selasa, 08 Desember 2009

Housing: Canada vs. the United States

Canadian vs. U.S. housing prices:Canadian vs. U.S. delinquency rates:Commentary from the source:While it is difficult to disentangle the reasons why Canada avoided the subprime boom, some factors can be identified that may have contributed to the differences in the Canadian and U.S. subprime markets.Perhaps the simplest story is that Canada was “lucky” to be a late adopter of U.S. innovations rather than an innovator in mortgage finance. While the...

November 2009 job losses: BLS vs. ADP

Via Mark Thoma, FT Alphaville questions the accuracy of the BLS payroll numbers released on Friday:Just how amazing were the US payroll numbers released on Friday?So amazing they’re verging on the (perish the thought) unbelievable, according to some analysts.The consensus forecast among analysts for the November job loss had been -130,000, with even the relatively optimistic and sometime-clairvoyant economists at Goldman Sachs forecasting -100,000....

Thoughts on "too big to fail"

Economist and blogger Rebecca Wilder has some thoughts on "too big to fail" ban...

Senin, 07 Desember 2009

More bubbles to come

Robin Wells, a former Princeton University economics professor and current wife of Paul Krugman, says we will continue having financial bubbles:The world is trapped in a global savings glut. It is both the source of our economic woes and an obstacle to the task of pulling ourselves out of the ditch. Worse yet, the glut's continued existence will feed a succession of asset bubbles until we confront it, head on, and find ways to soak up the excess.Yes, we can blame the City and Wall Street for turning the global savings glut into fissile material....

Minggu, 06 Desember 2009

Bargain book about the financial crisis

Looking for an inexpensive Christmas gift for yourself or others? Just want something to read while traveling? The Two Trillion Dollar Meltdown is currently available from Amazon.com for only $4.55.I haven't read the book, so I can't attest to its quality. I do, however, get a kick out of this 1-star reader review of the first edition from April 29, 2008:"Trillion Dollar Melt Down" is about the 2007 sub-prime credit crisis. The huge problem, though,...

Sabtu, 05 Desember 2009

The unemployment rate declines!

The economy keeps getting better (or less bad). The unemployment rate actually fell in November, down to 10.0% compared to 10.2% a month earlier:The year-over-year percent change in initial jobless claims has fallen below zero, which means employed workers are safer than they were a year ago:November's month-over-month change in nonfarm payrolls was just about zero, the best it's been since December 2007:Compare the above graph with a graph of ADP's...

Jumat, 04 Desember 2009

2010 housing predictions

CNBC real estate reporter Diana Olick makes four predictions for the coming year:The residential housing market will dip again in mid-2010 before settling into a recovery in the back half of the year.Foreclosure inventory will be a lot higher than some predict.No more historic lows on the 30-year fixed.Commercial real estate will continue to suffer the ills of low vacancy rates, low rents and high default rat...

Kamis, 03 Desember 2009

ADP: November 2009 job losses

According to the ADP Employment Report, the month over month rate of job losses continued to decline in November. This graph shows the number of job losses in thousands:Here are ADP's comments on the numbers:Nonfarm private employment decreased 169,000 from October to November 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. ...November was the eighth consecutive month during which the decline in employment was...

Rabu, 02 Desember 2009

Home sales contracts up in October

The number of home sales contracts surged in October, as home buyers tried to take advantage of the first time homeowner tax credit:In October the National Association of Realtors recorded an unprecedented ninth consecutive month of increases in the number of signed contracts.Although these are not closed sales, and some deals can fall through, signed contracts are a good indicator of where the housing market is headed.Between September and October NAR's Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.7% to 114.1 from 110 in October. But the index is 31.8% higher...

Selasa, 01 Desember 2009

Law professor: Walk away

A law professor encourages people to walk away from their homes:Go ahead. Break the chains. Stop paying on your mortgage if you owe more than the house is worth. And most important: Don't feel guilty about it. Don't think you're doing something morally wrong.That's the incendiary core message of a new academic paper by Brent T. White, a University of Arizona law school professor, titled "Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Housing Crisis."White argues that far more of the estimated 15 million American homeowners...

WTF?

"You buy this house and you will be ric...